Alberta economy projected to grow faster than Canada despite separation referendum uncertainty

Alberta's economy is projected to outpace the rest of Canada over the next two years, according to ATB Financial, but the ongoing separation referendum is creating enough uncertainty to discourage some business investment.

ATB forecasts Alberta real GDP growth of 2.6 per cent in 2026 and 2.3 per cent in 2027. The province is benefiting from population growth, strong oil prices, and increasing investment in technology, aviation, and food manufacturing. Twenty consecutive quarters of interprovincial inflows — people moving to Alberta — have bolstered the economy.

Mark Parsons, ATB chief economist, acknowledged the drag: "There is referendum uncertainty right now, we think that's weighing but that's being offset by other factors like higher oil prices, people keep moving to the province, 20 consecutive quarters of interprovincial inflows."

Planned pipeline development to Canada's West Coast could boost growth further if projects proceed. "I've been kind of cautious on this, I've been waiting to see if we'll actually see these projects proceed. But if we do, we're in a period of higher growth," Parsons said.

Some businesses are holding off on investments due to separation debate uncertainty. Jason Kenney, former premier, said he views the Oct. 19 referendum as a test of the province's stability. "I am a message-sending voter on Oct. 19. I want to send a message that we are open for business and that we are a stable jurisdiction, that we are not going to launch ourselves into a woodchipper of uncertainty and economic pain."

Kenney argued Alberta's real challenge in coming years may be managing rapid growth rather than generating it, but maintaining investor confidence depends on projecting stability. As HOC reported in June, the Chamber of Commerce warned that separatism talk was already freezing investment decisions.