Alberta's flu season gets an ugly start with one death and hospitalization jump

One person has died from lab-verified influenza in Alberta this season as hospitalizations surge earlier than typical, signalling what immunologists warn could be a severe winter ahead.

Between Sept. 27 and Oct. 3, Alberta recorded 194 lab-confirmed influenza cases, 21 hospital admissions, and 2 ICU admissions. The positivity rate reached 6.6% — above the 6% epidemic threshold. Nationally, the positivity rate across Canada is 3.7%.

The concerning part: it's only week 40. Typically, flu season takes off around week 42, and Alberta's hospital admissions graphs for 2022–2025 show low numbers at the beginning of October. This year's graph shows a noticeable bump.

Dr. Lynora Saxinger, a U of A immunologist, said Alberta is tracking earlier than most provinces. "Usually flu season onset varies in timing across the country, and to be honest, often Alberta is one of the first places. Usually, Calgary and Edmonton are amongst the first places to really take off," Saxinger said. "The current trajectory does look like it might be evolving to be an early start. So I really think people should be really on it when it comes time to getting their influenza vaccine set up."

Last season saw more than 20,000 lab-confirmed flu cases in Alberta. The past four flu seasons have progressively worsened. Saxinger points to two factors: during the pandemic, the population had reduced exposure to influenza, leaving many more immunologically naive to the virus. Combined with poor vaccine uptake over the past four years — when high vaccination rates would decrease community transmission — the conditions have aligned for heavier circulation.

Flu vaccine will be available Oct. 19 in Alberta, leaving a two-week gap from the season's current start.