El Niño Expected to Ease Atlantic Hurricane Season
Canadian Hurricane Centre predicts below-average storm activity this summer and fall as climate pattern shifts.
The Canadian Hurricane Centre is forecasting a below-average Atlantic hurricane season this year, thanks to the arrival of El Niño—a climate pattern that disrupts the atmospheric conditions hurricanes need to form and intensify.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. Senior meteorologist Bob Robichaud explains that El Niño causes warmer water to rise in the Pacific Ocean near the equator, which should occur around September when hurricane season typically peaks. This warming creates wind shear on the western side of the Atlantic, essentially shearing the tops off developing storms and preventing them from organizing into dangerous systems.
For Toronto and Eastern Canada, fewer hurricanes means reduced risk of major tropical systems tracking north. However, weather forecasters caution that "below-average" doesn't mean "no hurricanes"—even an off year can produce powerful storms. A single major hurricane can devastate a region, so the forecast is a relative comfort, not a guarantee.
The good news comes as climate change has made hurricane seasons less predictable overall. Any year that delivers fewer major storms is a win for coastal communities already dealing with intensifying weather patterns and rising seas.