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Experts: Hantavirus outbreak unlikely to become next pandemic

An Andes virus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship has prompted Canadian health authorities to isolate contacts, but infectious disease specialists say transmission is too limited for pandemic spread.

An outbreak of Andes virus on the MV Hondius cruise ship has raised pandemic concerns among Canadians still bearing the trauma of COVID-19, but infectious disease experts say the virus lacks the transmission capabilities to become widespread.

The cruise ship outbreak has resulted in eight cases, including three deaths, of Andes virus. Of the few dozen hantaviruses that exist globally, Andes virus is the only one known to spread from human to human.

Dr. Allison McGeer, an infectious disease specialist at Mount Sinai Hospital in Toronto who has lived through SARS-1 in 2003, H1N1 in 2009, and COVID-19 beginning in 2020, understands the public anxiety but is not alarmed. "I was losing sleep about COVID in the first week of January of 2020. I am not losing sleep about this," McGeer said Friday.

Human-to-human transmission of Andes virus is extremely rare, occurring almost exclusively among household contacts and healthcare workers in Argentina and Chile, where the virus is naturally found. When transmission does occur, it happens primarily through respiratory droplets and requires prolonged, very close contact.

David Safronetz, chief of special pathogens at the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg, echoed McGeer's assessment: "It's not going to be the next COVID pandemic. It doesn't have the transmission capabilities at the moment". He noted the virus transmits far less efficiently than common colds or influenza.

Several Canadians have been instructed to isolate following potential exposure. A couple from Grey Bruce in Ontario disembarked in late April before the outbreak was declared and have shown no symptoms. Four other Canadians from Quebec, Alberta, and Ontario were not on the ship but may have had contact with infected passengers during flights. Four additional Canadians remain aboard and will be met by consular officials when the vessel docks this weekend in Granadilla, Tenerife.