Alberta referendum on separation could weigh on Calgary's cooling housing market

Albertans will vote October 19 on whether to pursue binding independence from Canada, and that political uncertainty is casting a shadow over Calgary's real estate market—even though the cooling began well before the referendum question emerged.

Mid-August resales fell more than 24 per cent year-over-year, and the average price dropped more than 6 per cent to $647,155, according to Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) statistics. But Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist at CREB, says the current market decreases have little to do with the referendum. "The shifts we're seeing now don't have much to do with that," Lurie said. The bigger driver has been a decline in international migration over the past year and a half. "We're seeing sales right now return to something more normal for demand," she added.

Alberta saw record net migration levels from 2022 to 2024, but that pace has slowed. Net interprovincial migration continues but no longer at those elevated rates.

Still, business leaders say the referendum discussion is already affecting investor confidence. A Calgary Chamber of Commerce survey found that 8 in 10 surveyed members state the discussion of separation is negatively affecting the economy. The chamber also reported the province has already seen a reduction of as much as $15 billion in new investment due to referendum uncertainty. If a majority votes to pursue separation, it could lead to another binding referendum for independence, which the chamber projects could see a 6 per cent reduction in per capita GDP. The chamber also reported that 48 per cent of surveyed members would consider leaving Alberta if the decision is to separate, citing the fact that 1 in 3 jobs in Alberta are tied to out-of-province trade.

Doug Cabral, Royal LePage Benchmark, said the referendum question rarely comes up with buyers considering a move to Alberta. "Ultimately, people are still making decisions based on employment, affordability, lifestyle and opportunity," Cabral said. But with too many moving parts to predict, Cabral acknowledged the difficulty: "looking into a crystal ball" on whether the referendum will change employment, investment and migration patterns that drive housing supply and demand.

Lurie expressed confidence the market will stabilize regardless. "Should it come out that the vote is not to pursue separation further, the whole discussion ends," she said. "But if the opposite happens, that might change people's opinions" on housing decisions.