Calgary think-tank warns Alberta separation could cost $200B to set up, $50B+ annually

A Calgary-based think-tank has laid out stark economic warnings about Alberta separation ahead of an October referendum that will ask voters about independence.

The Canada West Foundation released its "Alberta in Confederation" report Thursday, estimating setup costs for an independent Alberta at a minimum of $200 billion, with ongoing annual costs exceeding $50 billion. The foundation calculated that per-person debt in a post-separation Alberta could range from $80,000 to $95,000, compared to the current $27,000 per capita in 2024.

"There will be people who will criticize it and say, 'Look, you're fearmongering.' This is not fearmongering," said Gary Mar, Canada West Foundation president. "This is about laying out the cold hard facts and saying, 'Here's what you need to know before you cast your vote.'"

The report warns that independent Alberta's economy could shrink, job losses would likely follow, interest rates could rise, and investment could be deterred. The foundation also flags uncertainty over monetary policy — whether an independent Alberta would assume the U.S. dollar, lose influence over monetary decisions if it kept the Canadian dollar outside Confederation, or faced other complications.

Former Progressive Conservative MLA Ted Morton, who co-authored the 2001 firewall letter, and Adam Legge, president of the Business Council of Alberta, contributed to the report. Lennie Kaplan, a former Treasury Board senior manager, detailed the costs: Alberta's share of federal net debt, associated annual debt servicing, setting up new trade agreements, and taking over federal transfers for health care, child care, and other programs.

"Moreover, it could very well shrink Alberta's economy, cause jobs to be lost, raise interest rates and deter investment," Kaplan said.

The report addresses constitutional negotiations, Indigenous rights, market access, and labour supply — areas the foundation flagged as carrying significant economic and political uncertainty. Premier Danielle Smith has said the province is preparing its own analysis of separation costs. In summer, Smith offered an early estimate of $400 billion in transitional costs, plus $25 billion to $50 billion annually.