Guide to Alberta's messy separation and federalist camps

When Albertans vote on separation October 19, they won't be rallying behind one unified movement on either side. Instead, a patchwork of groups with different leaders, strategies, and philosophies are competing for voters' attention—and some of them openly acknowledge they'll never all fit under the same tent.

On the federalist side, former deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk launched Forever Canadian last year, gathering over 400,000 signatures on a pro-Canada citizen's initiative. He's been first out of the gate, opening a campaign office in Edmonton and debuting a red-and-white "unity bus" set to visit Calgary this Sunday to distribute lawn signs. He ordered 15,000 initially and is close to needing another batch. "They're sort of the crack cocaine of Alberta," he said of the signs. "Everyone wants one."

Lukaszuk, a four-term Progressive Conservative MLA from 2001 to 2015 who has since endorsed Liberals federally and NDP provincially, understands why other federalists haven't joined him. "As long as all of us are rowing in the same direction, I think they will end up complementing each other," he said.

Forever Canadian isn't the only federalist group. Monte Solberg, a former federal Conservative cabinet minister, launched his own third-party advertising outfit focused on the stay option, which Elections Alberta allows to spend up to $607,000 on advertising.

On the separatist side, complexity mirrors the federalists. Mitch Sylvestre of the Alberta Prosperity Project put it plainly: "Oh, my God, can you see all of us in one room trying to get along over that? Yeah, it's never going to happen."

Unlike Quebec's 1995 referendum, which was dominated by active political leaders on both sides, Alberta's campaign is fragmented. Premier Danielle Smith, who put the question on the ballot, formally opposes secession, as do other mainstream political parties. Yet she and other office-holders may cede the public forefront to grassroots organizers.