Nearly half of Albertans voting for separation referendum actually want to send Ottawa a message
An Angus Reid poll shows 60% of Albertans would vote No in October's referendum, but many Yes voters see the vote as political leverage rather than secession.
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Nearly half of Albertans planning to vote Yes on October's separation referendum don't actually want Alberta to leave Canada — they want to send a message to Ottawa, according to new polling from the Angus Reid Institute.
The referendum asks voters whether Alberta should "commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum" on separation. Across Albertans overall, nearly two-thirds would vote No (stay in Canada) and roughly one-third would vote Yes (begin the process). But when asked a simpler hypothetical — leave or stay — support for remaining rises to 65%, while the leave option falls to 30%.
Jonathan Roe, a researcher with Angus Reid, said the gap reflects a split intention among Yes voters. "Three out of five poll respondents voting for a referendum actually want the province to leave. But if the question was part of a binding referendum, overall support decreases to 30 per cent." Roe added: "It's not necessarily a desire to leave the country. They want to say, 'We're upset with the federal government policies.'"
The poll of 1,017 Albertans surveyed Aug. 10-13 also found that half of respondents find the official referendum question confusing. Edmonton is the most federalist city; rural Alberta is evenly split. NDP voters are near-unanimous in opposing separation, while UCP voters lean Yes.
Both camps report strong commitment to their positions. Turnout intentions are high among both federalists and separatists, with levels of certainty that are unusually high for a referendum two months out, Roe said.
Historical voter turnout data, however, raises questions about whether those commitment levels will translate into actual votes. A separate Pollara survey cited by Alberta NDP MLA Shannon Phillips found stark turnout disparities: seniors show higher turnout intentions than those under 35. Turnout for white Albertans and rural Alberta is estimated higher, while turnout among non-white voters trails significantly.
Support for staying in Canada has remained consistent for the past year despite multiple separatist campaigns. The referendum outcome will ultimately hinge on turnout.
Will the 30-point turnout gap between seniors and voters under 35 actually emerge on October 19?
How many Yes voters will stick with that vote in an actual binding referendum, versus using October as a protest message?
We'll update this story as answers emerge.
The facts
When is Alberta's separation referendum?
The referendum is scheduled for October 2026.
What percentage of Albertans would vote No in the separation referendum?
Nearly two-thirds of Albertans surveyed would vote No to keep Alberta in Canada.
How many Albertans were surveyed in the Angus Reid poll?
Angus Reid polled 1,017 Albertans between August 10 and August 13, 2026.
Why do many Yes voters support the referendum despite not wanting separation?
Three out of five Yes voters use the referendum as a message to the federal government about their dissatisfaction with federal policies, rather than actually wanting Alberta to leave Canada.
Which Alberta cities show the strongest support for staying in Canada?
Edmonton is the most federalist city in Alberta, while rural Alberta is evenly split on the issue.
Ongoing coverage · Alberta Separation Referendum Coverage
