Hundreds betting on Alberta separation referendum through offshore platforms

Hundreds of people are wagering money on whether Alberta will vote to separate from Canada on October 19, despite the province's explicit ban on betting tied to political events.

Prediction-market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have seen near-daily activity on a market tracking the referendum's second question, with the likelihood of it passing currently sitting at eight per cent as of Saturday. The platforms have geo-blocked users with Alberta IP addresses to comply with provincial rules, but researchers and officials say ways exist to circumvent the blocks, and offshore operators remain accessible to Albertans who want to place bets.

Dale Nally, Service Alberta Minister, said the prohibition exists because of the risk of market manipulation and insider information. "Betting on political events is prohibited in Alberta because of the risk of manipulation and insider information," Nally told Postmedia, adding: "Albertans should avoid any site that offers this type of bet at all costs." Nally called on platforms to geoblock Alberta residents entirely if they won't follow the province's rules.

Robert Williams, a gambling researcher and University of Lethbridge professor, agrees insider trading is a legitimate concern in prediction markets but says they are particularly hard to regulate. "That someone who really wants to bet on the Alberta election, I think they probably could find some site that allows them to do that," Williams said.

Prediction markets operate differently from typical gambling. Instead of placing bets with fixed odds, traders buy and sell contracts that pay $1 if an event happens or nothing if it doesn't. The contract value fluctuates between 1 and 99 cents depending on outcome odds, allowing traders to buy low and sell high.

Canadian regulators are working to clarify the boundary between betting and financial speculation. The Canadian Securities Administrator and Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization have set preliminary boundaries: trading on financial and economic items is permitted, while trading on sports and entertainment events leans more toward gambling. A Canadian fintech partnership between Wealthsimple and Kalshi received CSA approval this year, but with restrictions limiting it to events relating to the economy, financial markets, and weather—explicitly excluding political events.

Williams noted that wagering on elections feels uncomfortable but functions similarly to polling in affecting outcomes. "That's been happening for 50 years now — that we have polls in advance of elections. And there's not a whole lot of evidence that they change behaviour that much." Survey research suggests the number of Canadians using prediction markets remains small, and those who do tend to be more hardcore gamblers.

The referendum vote is October 19.