Prime Minister Carney says oilsands growth will be different this time as Pacific Link pipeline advances
PM touts lessons learned from mid-2000s boom as Pacific Link gets streamlined national-interest review. Pipeline would carry 1M barrels per day from Bruderheim to metro Vancouver by Sept. 2027.
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Prime Minister Mark Carney said Thursday that if oilsands companies begin major expansion again, the industry and government have learned enough from the mid-2000s boom to avoid repeating its worst side effects—cost inflation, labour scarcity, and housing shortages.
Carney was in Fort McMurray to announce that the Pacific Link pipeline, which would carry a million barrels per day of crude from Bruderheim (northeast of Edmonton) to metro Vancouver, has been designated a national-interest project. The designation puts the pipeline on a streamlined review process managed by a Calgary-based major projects office, with construction potentially beginning as soon as next September and completion targeted for September 1, 2027.
The pipeline's economic fate hinges on whether oilsands companies commit to expanding output. After a quiet decade—global crude prices cratered amid supply glut before the COVID-19 pandemic virtually eliminated demand—recent geopolitical shifts have changed the calculation. The Mideast war laid bare vulnerabilities in global energy supply chains, and countries are clamouring for stable suppliers.
"I wouldn't use the term 'boom'," Carney said. "I would use 'sustained growth.'" He cited the industry's recent strategy of tweaking existing operations rather than building from scratch, a shift driven by executives citing pipeline constraints, regulatory complexity, and environmental rules. The last major greenfield project—Suncor Energy's Fort Hills mine—saw its final go-ahead in 2013, cost more than $17 billion (originally projected at $13.5 billion), and didn't start production until 2018. That cautionary history has made companies prefer smaller, lower-cost expansions of existing footprints.
Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said infrastructure planning and early First Nations participation mean "a much broader spread of the economic benefits" this time. Carney also cited technical innovation—autonomous oilsands haul trucks—that didn't exist in the last boom, when human drivers for those vehicles commanded six-figure salaries. Smith called the pipeline "generational nation-building infrastructure" and said the project marks a turn away from years of "uncertainty and delay."
Major questions remain unanswered about final financing, new British Columbia tolls on Alberta oil, shipper commitments, and ultimate project cost.
What specific conditions did First Nations demand or accept as part of their 'early participation'?
Which oilsands companies have committed to expansion projects that would make the pipeline economically viable?
How much of the taxpayer's initial ownership stake will eventually transfer to private proponents?
We'll update this story as answers emerge.
The facts
What is the Pacific Link pipeline and where would it go?
The Pacific Link pipeline would carry one million barrels per day of crude oil from Bruderheim, northeast of Edmonton, to metro Vancouver.
When is the Pacific Link pipeline expected to be completed?
The Pacific Link pipeline is targeted for completion on September 1, 2027.
Why did Suncor Energy's Fort Hills mine cost more than expected?
Suncor Energy's Fort Hills mine, which received final approval in 2013, was originally projected to cost $13.5 billion but ultimately cost more than $17 billion. The project did not begin production until 2018.
