Billy Bishop expansion claims lack backing—study incomplete

Ontario is pushing hard to expand Toronto's Billy Bishop airport—allowing jets, turning it into a "special economic zone," overriding municipal controls—but the economic case rests on a number that doesn't quite exist yet.

The Ontario government has repeatedly cited an $8.5 billion annual economic boost by 2050. It's been in press releases, quoted by the premier to media. But when CBC News asked the Toronto Port Authority, which owns the airport, where that figure came from, the answer was frank: the study is still underway.

Deborah Wilson, vice president of communications for the port authority, said "preliminary work" was done last year, but the full economic impact assessment won't be complete until fall. The province declined to say whether it has done its own analysis or why it's promoting a number from an unfinished study.

Several experts are skeptical. Sandford Borins, a retired professor of public management at the University of Toronto, says much of the traffic would simply shift from Pearson to Billy Bishop—meaning the same economic activity, not new growth. Frédéric Dimanche, a hospitality professor at Toronto Metropolitan, argues that day-tripping business travellers spend less money than overnight visitors and that the pure "bring more people" metric misses real economic value.

The province is moving fast anyway. It's introducing legislation to take Toronto's seat in the tripartite agreement governing the airport, overriding the city's voice. Premier Doug Ford has even mentioned the province might help pay for expansion—cost unknown, since the final modernization plan isn't finished either.

For Montréal residents watching from across the border, it's a case study in how infrastructure decisions get made in a neighboring province without complete evidence. The airport debate will continue through the fall, but the pressure is building before the analysis arrives.