Billy Bishop Expansion Claims Rest on Unfinished Study

Ontario's grand claims about economic benefits from expanding Billy Bishop airport to allow jets rest on a study that hasn't been completed yet—and experts are skeptical the promised $8.5 billion annual boost by 2050 is realistic.

The provincial government has repeatedly cited that $8.5 billion figure as justification for overriding planning laws, expropriating city land, and taking over Toronto's role in the tripartite agreement governing the airport. But when CBC News asked the Toronto Port Authority—which owns Billy Bishop—about the source of those numbers, the organization admitted its economic impact study is still underway, with work continuing into the fall.

Ontario Transportation Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria's office didn't answer whether the province has done its own analysis, instead saying the economic benefit "is too important to not move forward" and citing capacity concerns at Toronto Pearson. But Pearson's website shows 47.3 million passengers travelled through in 2025—still lower than the pre-pandemic peak of 50.5 million in 2019. The airport itself told CBC it's "not at capacity" and is undergoing a modernization project to accommodate 65 million passengers annually.

Meanwhile, Billy Bishop has seen declining traffic: 1.7 million passengers in 2025, down from two million in 2024 and a peak of 2.7 million in 2019. The expansion plans promise to boost that to 10 million annually.

University of Toronto professor Sandford Borins, who studies airport planning, says much of the traffic would likely just shift from Pearson to Billy Bishop—contributing the same dollars to the economy either way. Toronto Metropolitan University's Frédéric Dimanche adds that day-trippers (the likeliest Billy Bishop passengers) spend far less than overnight visitors. Both experts argue the province should wait for independent analysis before proceeding with such dramatic changes to the waterfront and city governance.