Alberta projected to top 7 million people by 2051 with growth driven largely by migration

Alberta's population is expected to surpass 7 million people by 2051—a 39 per cent increase from the current 5,052,614—driven largely by migration from outside Canada, according to provincial finance ministry projections released Wednesday.

Eighty-one per cent of that growth will come from net migration, with more than three-quarters of newcomers coming from outside of Canada. The remaining 19 per cent will come from natural increase—births exceeding deaths. The forecast was made after the federal government introduced more restrictive immigration policies earlier this year. "While Alberta is expected to be impacted by the national targets, it is likely that the impact will be smaller than in other jurisdictions of the country, as Alberta is home to fewer non-permanent residents relative to other large provinces," the report states.

Alberta's population will also age significantly. The average age is projected to grow from 38 years to 43 years over the next quarter century. Within four years, seniors are expected to outnumber children aged 0 to 14, with one in five Albertans aged 65 or older by 2051—seniors outnumbering children by 200,000.

Population increases are forecast in 101 of the province's 132 local geographic areas, led by Edmonton-Rutherford, Edmonton-Woodcroft East, and Calgary-Centre—all expected to grow by 2.6 per cent. The Edmonton-Calgary corridor's share of Alberta's population is projected to rise to 82 per cent by 2051 from 78 per cent today, with the region adding more than 1.8 million residents. Both metro areas are estimated to grow by around 45 per cent, reaching just under 2.5 million in Edmonton and 2.7 million in Calgary.

In contrast, 31 of Alberta's 132 local geographic areas are projected to lose population, with many declines occurring in rural communities.