Alberta separation could cost 330,000 jobs tied to interprovincial trade
A Calgary Chamber of Commerce study shows how dependent Alberta's economy is on selling to other provinces — and what happens if that stops.
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A study commissioned by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce finds that roughly 330,000 Alberta jobs — 13 per cent of the provincial workforce — depend on trade with the rest of Canada, spanning manufacturing, professional services, wholesale trade, transportation, hospitality, and agriculture.
University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe estimates that 55 cents of every dollar of Alberta income is generated from exports. Alberta's largest trading customer is the United States; its second-largest is Ontario, which receives enough Alberta goods to support approximately 230,000 Ontario jobs and generate $34 billion in Ontario income.
If separation made interprovincial trade more expensive, Tombe's analysis suggests Alberta's economy could shrink by billions of dollars annually, with unemployment rising by approximately 34,000 people. "If we are having enough challenges trying to deconstruct interprovincial trade barriers as a federation, how is that going to work when you have a sovereign country in the middle of it?" Deborah Yedlin, president and chief executive of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, said in a statement released in August.
Manuel Juárez Davila, director of the Simpson Centre for Food and Agricultural Policy at the University of Calgary, noted that Alberta currently sells roughly $10 billion to $15 billion annually in food, beverage, live animals and raw grains to other provinces. "I haven't seen any analysis providing any advantage for farmers, specifically, for their business, with a separation decision," he said.
Keith Wilson, a constitutional lawyer and co-lead of the Alberta Transition Council and Let Alberta Decide, acknowledged Alberta's geographic constraints: "Alberta is still a landlocked province. It would be a landlocked country. So, it would still depend on other provinces, or other countries at that time, to access the ports." Wilson also argued that "it would be economic suicide for the rest of the country to decide to cut off trade with Alberta," though the study suggests the economic damage would fall primarily on Alberta itself.
Would Alberta negotiate new trade agreements with other provinces and countries, or would separation create a prolonged negotiation period?
What assumptions about tariffs or trade barriers does Tombe's analysis use, and are those realistic?
We'll update this story as answers emerge.
By the numbers
How many Alberta jobs depend on interprovincial trade?
According to a Calgary Chamber of Commerce study, roughly 330,000 Alberta jobs — 13 per cent of the provincial workforce — depend on trade with other provinces across manufacturing, professional services, wholesale trade, transportation, hospitality, and agriculture.
What share of Alberta income comes from exports?
University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe estimates that 55 cents of every dollar of Alberta income is generated from exports.
How much would Alberta's unemployment rise if interprovincial trade became more expensive?
Trevor Tombe's analysis suggests unemployment in Alberta could rise by approximately 34,000 people if separation made interprovincial trade more expensive.
