Banff temperatures could rise 3 to 6 degrees by mid-century, Parks Canada warns

Temperatures in Banff National Park could rise by three to six degrees over the coming decades due to climate change, according to a Parks Canada report released this week.

The projections are based on existing emissions scenarios and whether they peak in 2050 and decline or continue to rise annually. The report cautions that warming temperatures can lead to more rain in winter months, drier summers, increased wildfire risk, and higher chances of glacial melt.

John Pomeroy, director of the University of Saskatchewan's Centre of Hydrology based in Canmore, said monitoring in the national park indicates at least 75 per cent of glaciers will be lost by the end of the century. Peyto Glacier has retreated 500 metres and lost roughly 56 metres of ice surface since 2019 alone. "It's stunningly horrible. We're losing it all right before our eyes," Pomeroy said. "If anything, it's coming faster than what they're suggesting."

Roughly 44 per cent of Banff's 6,500 square kilometres is alpine ecoregion. Popular spots like Sunshine Meadows, Healy Pass, and Citadel Pass are "particularly sensitive areas," and more restricted use and seasonal closures could be on the horizon.

Climate change can cause ecological shifts: forests become grasslands; warmer, rainier winters disrupt hibernation patterns; and food supply is disrupted as growing seasons change. Daniella Rubeling, acting superintendent of the Banff field unit, said climate change is "increasingly influencing how we plan, operate and make decisions." Climate summaries for Yoho and Kootenay national parks were completed in 2024.