CMHC downgrades 2026 housing forecast as sales and prices decline
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. now expects 457,200 home sales and an average price of $675,200 this year, down from earlier projections, citing economic uncertainty and higher borrowing costs.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. has downgraded its outlook for the housing market this year, now expecting both sales and prices to fall as economic uncertainty and borrowing costs weigh on activity.
CMHC now forecasts 457,200 home sales in 2026 with an average price of $675,200, down from 470,314 sales at an average of $679,543 in 2025. The agency also cut its forecast from its February projection, which had anticipated sales and prices rising compared with last year.
The downgrade reflects multiple headwinds: economic uncertainty, slower population growth, and elevated borrowing costs. Housing starts are expected to reach 241,400 in 2026, down from 259,028 in 2025, as builders face weak demand, high inventories, and elevated construction costs.
CMHC noted that uncertainty remains high due to geopolitical tensions expected to temporarily raise inflation and ongoing Canada-U.S. trade uncertainty, which continues to affect investment and hiring decisions across the country.
By the numbers
How many home sales does CMHC forecast for Canada in 2026?
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. forecasts 457,200 home sales in 2026, down from 470,314 sales in 2025.
What is CMHC's forecast for average home prices in Canada in 2026?
CMHC forecasts an average home price of $675,200 in 2026, down from $679,543 in 2025.
How many housing starts does CMHC expect in Canada in 2026?
CMHC expects 241,400 housing starts in 2026, down from 259,028 in 2025.
What factors drove CMHC to downgrade its 2026 housing forecast?
Economic uncertainty, slower population growth, elevated borrowing costs, high inventories, and elevated construction costs drove the downgrade. CMHC also cited geopolitical tensions expected to temporarily raise inflation and ongoing Canada-U.S. trade uncertainty.
