Fall outlook calls for warmer, drier weather across most of Canada
Fall brings warmer, drier weather to most of Canada, with Southern Ontario facing fewer snow squalls but increased freeze-thaw risks as a super El Niño drives the seasonal pattern.
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Fall arrives Tuesday with a weather pattern that could reshape the season across much of Canada: warmer and drier conditions than average, driven by an intensifying super El Niño in the Pacific.
Most of the country is expected to experience drier-than-average precipitation and snow, with Atlantic Canada, the lower Great Lakes, and coastal British Columbia closer to historical norms. Northern Canada will see the most pronounced warming. Southern Ontario, including the Ottawa region, will be warmer and drier than average this fall and winter, a shift with ripple effects across agriculture, recreation, and water systems.
according to reports Chief Meteorologist Natasha Ramsahai, the dry pattern carries risks extending into next year. "This is going to be a big problem as we go into the next few months," Ramsahai said. "If we're going to be dry now… early indications are that a good chunk of Canada will also stay dry through the winter as well and that's going to have some implications when it comes to spring and summer." Without adequate snowmelt and with dry soil, wildfire risk could intensify next season.
For Southern Ontario specifically, fewer snow squalls — typically generated by cold air crossing the Great Lakes — could reduce the lake-effect snow that feeds ski hills north of Toronto and recreational winter sports. However, freeze-thaw cycles are expected to be more prevalent, potentially extending shipping seasons but creating hazards from freezing rain and flooding where heavy rain falls on frozen ground. Less ice on the Great Lakes as a whole threatens fish ecosystems that depend on under-ice winter conditions.
The Niño 3.4 region, the key indicator for El Niño strength, measured 3.05°C above average as of two days ago and has reached super El Niño status. "And it hasn't even reached its peak yet, its going to continue to strengthen through November and December," Ramsahai said. The neutral phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation means typical cold-air patterns over southern Ontario may not develop as expected.
By the numbers
How much warmer than average is the Niño 3.4 region right now?
As of September 20, 2026, the Niño 3.4 region measured 3.05°C above average and has reached super El Niño status.
What winter weather changes are expected for Southern Ontario?
Southern Ontario will experience warmer and drier conditions than average, with fewer snow squalls but more frequent freeze-thaw cycles that could create hazards from freezing rain and flooding.
What is Chief Meteorologist Natasha Ramsahai's concern about Canada's dry pattern?
Ramsahai warns that if much of Canada remains dry through the winter, inadequate snowmelt and dry soil could intensify wildfire risk in spring and summer.
