March Retail Sales Up as Fuel Prices Spike Amid Iran Tensions
Statistics Canada reports retail sales rose 0.9% in March, driven largely by a 12.4% jump at gas pumps following US-Israel strikes on Iran.
Canadian retail sales climbed 0.9 per cent to $72.7 billion in March, according to Statistics Canada—a modest gain that masks deeper volatility beneath the headline number.
The bump came almost entirely from gas stations and fuel vendors, which surged 12.4 per cent as the US and Israel's military action against Iran sent oil and gas prices spiking. In volume terms, though, fuel sales actually fell 1.9 per cent, meaning Canadians bought less gasoline but paid more for it. The distinction matters: price inflation at the pump inflates nominal sales figures without reflecting genuine consumer demand.
Core retail sales—excluding gas, cars, and auto parts—fell 0.1 per cent, a signal that broader spending is weakening. Building materials and garden equipment sales dropped 2.9 per cent, and general merchandise fell 0.5 per cent. In volume terms, overall retail sales declined 0.7 per cent.
For Toronto households already watching inflation and mortgage rates, the data confirms what many feel: underlying consumer spending is soft. Fuel prices masked the weakness in March, but come summer, if global tensions ease and gas prices cool, the retail picture will likely look even thinner.