Ukraine escalates drone attacks on Moscow, Crimea

Ukraine is intensifying long-range drone strikes on Moscow and Russian-occupied Crimea, marking a dramatic shift in the conflict now dragging on longer than the First World War. For the first time, Russia's main population centres are experiencing the direct impact of war rather than secondary effects like sanctions.

Last Thursday, Ukraine unleashed its largest drone attack on Moscow since the war started more than four years ago. Flames engulfed one of Russia's most important oil refineries, sending huge plumes of toxic smoke over the city as black, sooty rain fell on cars. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky quickly sent a statement: "If Ukraine is going to burn, your Moscow will burn too."

On Monday, Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov posted his own declaration: "We are closing the beach season in Crimea." Ukrainian forces have repeatedly targeted fuel supplies and air-defence systems across the Russian-occupied peninsula. Summer camps were called off, electricity has sputtered, and gas-station queues stretch for hours. The repeated strikes signal a strategic pressure campaign aimed at forcing Russian leadership to question whether the war remains sustainable.

People in Moscow are now waking to smoke in the sky and watching mobile air-defence units drive through streets trying to shoot down drones. The supply disruptions have created widespread fuel shortages in Crimea.

Yet Putin has maintained roughly 70 per cent public support according to available polling, and his most serious opponents are in exile. The crucial question will be how Russia's elites respond — whether it still benefits them to support Putin. So far, no obvious cracks have emerged, and the war against Ukraine has given Russia unexpected billions of dollars in oil revenue alongside temporary sanctions relief.