Alberta economy poised for 2.3% growth as investment tide shifts federal, business leaders say
Calgary Economic Development projects Alberta will outpace the rest of Canada as federal deregulation and $100B in new projects signal a turning point for the resource sector.
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Alberta is on track to significantly outpace the rest of Canada economically, according to Calgary Economic Development's 2027 Economic Outlook, which projects provincial GDP growth of 2.3 per cent against 0.9 per cent for the rest of Canada.
The optimism is tied to a shift in federal policy. Mark Carney's administration has moved toward deregulating and speeding up project approvals, and Alberta secured 27 spots in a federal showcase of proposed national projects — more than any other jurisdiction. Federal showcase initiatives nearly touch $100 billion in value.
"This is an economy that's on the cusp of some major projects proceeding," Mark Parsons, ATB's chief economist, said in an interview with Postmedia. The pipeline and energy projects in motion include the Pacific Link Pipeline (estimated at $35 billion to transport up to one million barrels a day to global markets), LNG Canada Phase Two, West Coast Pipeline, South Bow Prairie Connector, Trans Mountain pipeline optimization, and Enbridge Mainline optimization.
Former premier Jason Kenney noted at a CED news conference that those projects together represent about 2 million barrels a day of additional crude egress from Alberta, which under the right conditions could trigger something like $100 billion of additional capital investment in new oilsands projects. A commercial-scale carbon capture initiative and a lithium extraction project in Bashaw are also in the deal book.
Brad Parry, CEO and president of Calgary Economic Development, framed the shift as a moment when "the world is looking at Canada differently. Countries and companies are looking for reliable partners, trusted suppliers, and stable places to invest. And increasingly, as the conversation unfolds, Canada is looking west, and Alberta is at the centre of those discussions."
Parsons cautioned that the outlook assumes major projects proceed. The separation referendum on October 19 introduces uncertainty that could weigh on investor confidence, though business leaders did not explicitly name it as a risk.
Will major projects like the Pacific Link Pipeline and LNG Canada Phase Two actually proceed on their stated timelines?
How much of the projected growth depends on the separation referendum outcome on October 19?
We'll update this story as answers emerge.
The facts
What is Alberta's projected GDP growth rate?
Alberta is projected to achieve 2.3 per cent GDP growth, according to Calgary Economic Development's 2027 Economic Outlook.
How many proposed national projects did Alberta secure in the federal showcase?
Alberta secured 27 spots in the federal showcase of proposed national projects, more than any other jurisdiction.
What is the estimated cost of the Pacific Link Pipeline?
The Pacific Link Pipeline is estimated at $35 billion and is designed to transport up to one million barrels a day to global markets.
What major pipeline and energy projects are currently in motion in Alberta?
Projects include the Pacific Link Pipeline, LNG Canada Phase Two, West Coast Pipeline, South Bow Prairie Connector, Trans Mountain pipeline optimization, and Enbridge Mainline optimization, along with a carbon capture initiative and a lithium extraction project in Bashaw.
