UCP support drops 8 points in new poll as NDP surges to dead heat in Alberta race

A new poll shows Alberta voters have shifted sharply toward the NDP in recent months, erasing the UCP's comfortable lead from six months ago and creating a dead heat in voter support heading into the fall referendum on separation.

The Janet Brown Opinion Research survey commissioned by reporting found UCP support at 41 per cent provincewide, down 8 points since April, while NDP support stands at 41 per cent, up 5 points in the same period. Poll seat projections favour Alberta New Democrats with a pretty strong majority if an election were held today, according to NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi.

"A poll that came out today shows that the Alberta New Democrats win a pretty strong majority election if it were held today. I'm happy about that," Nenshi said, pointing to the seat projections as evidence momentum is shifting toward the NDP.

Some observers see the NDP's recent byelection win in Calgary-Shaw as a sign of growing support for the party in Calgary. Lori Williams, Mount Royal University associate professor of policy studies, attributed the shift in voter sentiment to people beginning to pay closer attention to politics as the October 19 separation referendum approaches.

"Partly because people are beginning to pay closer attention to politics. They're starting to think about how they're going to vote in a referendum that's less than a month away," Williams said.

Voter frustration with the provincial government is evident. One Albertan voter, when asked about dissatisfaction with the current administration and the upcoming referendum, said: "Absolutely. I think it's a waste of time and money and I don't think it's doing anything for our country."

Not all voters have shifted left, however. Another respondent said: "Well I didn't particularly like what the NDP did in Alberta. And I'm happier with Danielle Smith." When asked what the UCP could do to earn their vote, one voter called for: "put more funding into public healthcare and prioritize it."

Williams cautioned that opposition parties need to offer more than criticism. "Any opposition party that wants to pick up on this dissatisfaction that we're seeing reflected in this poll needs to do more than criticize the government. They need to provide an alternative vision," she said.

Nenshi countered criticism of the NDP's past record: "But Albertans know the only reason they're in this position is because of them."

Roughly one year remains before Albertans are expected to head to the polls. The October 19 referendum vote and the UCP's annual general meeting in November could further influence voter sentiment in the months ahead.