NDP wins Calgary-Shaw byelection, flipping longtime UCP riding by 582 votes

Kyle Campbell of the NDP defeated UCP candidate Mike Derry by 582 votes in Monday's Calgary-Shaw byelection, capturing 7,461 votes cast. It's the first time the NDP has held the riding since the 2015 provincial election, when the party swept to power under Rachel Notley.

Calgary-Shaw had long been conservative territory. In 2023, Rebecca Schulz won the seat for the UCP with a 14 percentage point margin over the NDP.

Premier Danielle Smith's office blamed vote splitting among conservatives for the loss, pointing to Progressive Tory candidate Kyle Joseph's 978 votes as potentially decisive. Peter Guthrie, the former cabinet minister who founded the Progressive Tory Party, rejected that characterization. "We do not have a conservative government, so you're not splitting anything," Guthrie told reporters Tuesday.

Many conservative leaders attributed the defeat to the October 19 referendum on Alberta separation. Former UCP premier Jason Kenney said the separatism debate is alienating federalist-minded conservatives while pushing nationalist voters toward the NDP. Ken Boessenkool, a longtime conservative strategist, called the result "a welcome rebuke for distracting Albertans with a foolish, dangerous and undemocratic referendum."

NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi said pro-unity messaging resonated on the ground. "If you were flying a Canadian flag or you had a forever Canadian sign, yeah, we pretty much could mark you down as a supporter," Nenshi told reporters. Official results will be confirmed September 24.