Nenshi warns low voter turnout could boost separatist vote in October referendum

Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi rallied hundreds of supporters Saturday with a stark warning: even though separatists represent only 17 to 20 per cent of Albertans according to polls, they could win a referendum on separation if pro-Canada voters don't show up to vote.

The October 19 referendum will ask two things: whether Alberta should remain in Canada, and whether a binding referendum on separation should be held, along with nine other questions.

"Every single one of those separatists is going to vote," Nenshi said at the rally. "I'm really worried that, because the polls are so clear that the separatists are not a majority, that pro-Canada people won't vote."

The concern is rooted in turnout math. Calgary's last municipal election drew 39 per cent turnout, while Red Deer and Lethbridge recently saw around 20 per cent. If a provincial referendum on separation attracts a 30 per cent turnout and separatists represent 17 to 20 per cent of the electorate, Nenshi said the outcome could defy the polls. "Our job is not just to vote, but to drag every single proud Canadian we know to vote," he said.

Nenshi framed the referendum as Premier Danielle Smith's attempt to distract from the UCP government's record on affordability, unemployment, healthcare, and education. Smith has said previously that she will vote to keep Alberta in Canada and that the referendum ensures all Albertans have a voice on the matter.

The NDP's door-to-door canvassing has found that fewer than half the people they speak to are aware the referendum is happening, and only around 10 per cent know about the nine other questions on the ballot.

Hundreds attended Saturday's rally in red clothing and Canadian flags. Denise Vaile, a longtime Albertan, said she came to support Canada. "I've always been a big fan of Nenshi," she said. "I was a huge fan of his when he was the mayor of the city, and I support him 100 per cent."

Miriam Meir, who has Indigenous ancestry, framed the vote as about respecting Indigenous peoples and the treaties signed before Alberta became a province. "All the Indigenous people are standing for their land, and that is very important. All the chiefs gathered together and said, 'This is our land, and we are going to guard it,' and I back them up 100 per cent," she said.