Edmonton's housing affordability could hold steady for the next decade, CMHC says
A federal report finds Edmonton leading major Canadian markets with no measurable supply gap, suggesting current building pace can maintain pre-pandemic affordability ratios.
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Edmonton is the only major Canadian market with no measurable supply gap based on federal housing modeling, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation said Thursday in its Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report.
The finding suggests that if Edmonton continues at its current pace of roughly 15,000 annual housing starts, it can restore the city's price-to-income ratio to pre-pandemic 2019 levels by 2036. That ratio — the average house price divided by average gross household income — sat at about 25 per cent in 2019 and currently stands slightly above 30 per cent. Edmonton's record 2025 starts of 21,337 units put the city well ahead of that baseline.
"In Edmonton, there's no measurable supply gap, based on our modeling, suggesting that the current pace is sufficient to maintain pre-pandemic affordability over the next decade," said Taylor Pardy, lead economist for the Prairies at CMHC.
Other major markets face significant supply gaps. Toronto would need to increase annual starts by 20,000 units beyond its current average of 42,000 to maintain affordability gains, partly due to higher interest rates, slower international migration, and trade uncertainty with the U.S. Calgary, like Edmonton, has a modest gap likely closing based on recent high annual starts.
New home competition is already shifting the market. "For buyers looking in new suburbs, we are seeing a better ability to negotiate pricing and incentives with builders," said Nathan Mol, an Edmonton realtor with Liv Real Estate. That pressure extends to resale: "Sellers are having to consider their pricing strategies" to remain competitive, Mol added.
Despite average prices rising more than 20 per cent over the past five years, Edmonton remains among the most affordable major markets in Canada. The city is also posting strong economic growth of about 6 per cent annually — among the fastest in the country.
"The underlying fundamentals look pretty good" for housing affordability over the next decade, Pardy said. Still, restoring affordability to 2019 levels does not mean prices return to pre-pandemic dollars — it refers to the ratio of home prices to household income.
The facts
Is Edmonton facing a housing supply gap?
No. Edmonton is the only major Canadian market with no measurable supply gap based on federal housing modeling by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.
How many housing starts does Edmonton need annually to restore pre-pandemic affordability?
Edmonton needs roughly 15,000 annual housing starts to restore its price-to-income ratio to pre-pandemic 2019 levels by 2036. The city exceeded this baseline with a record 21,337 starts in 2025.
How much have Edmonton average home prices risen in the past five years?
Edmonton average prices have risen more than 20 per cent over the past five years, yet the city remains among the most affordable major markets in Canada.
