First snow possible October 11–17, Old Farmer's Almanac forecasts for Southern Quebec

The Old Farmer's Almanac released its October weather forecast for Southern Quebec on Monday, predicting the season's first snow will arrive between October 11 and 17.

During that window, Montreal and surrounding regions should expect a mix of rain and snow showers with chilly conditions. The forecasts, compiled up to 18 months in advance using solar activity, astronomical positioning, and historical weather patterns, correctly predict the direction of seasonal temperature and precipitation swings about 80% of the time.

October overall is forecast to average around 8.5°C, about half a degree below the seasonal norm. Precipitation is expected around 100mm, slightly above average. The early month (October 1–7) will see showers clearing to chilly conditions. October 8–10 brings returning showers and a brief warm-up. Mid-to-late month (October 18–21) will clear and turn sunny initially, then rainy and mild. The final stretch (October 22–31) shows a mix of sun and showers with a warming trend.

In its August forecast, the Almanac called for a wetter-than-normal fall season across the region and warned against ruling out snow without committing to a specific date — a caution that appears to have materialized in this October outlook.

As HOC reported in July, weather forecasts have been significantly off this summer, so this prediction comes with a note of uncertainty.