Quebec's fall forecast suggests first snow could arrive by mid-October
The Old Farmer's Almanac projects southern Quebec, including Montreal, will see a chilly stretch with rain and snow showers between October 11 and 17.
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Quebec's fall forecast is already here, and winter might arrive sooner than you'd expect.
The Old Farmer's Almanac released its 2026 fall weather outlook Thursday, projecting that southern Quebec, including Montreal and Quebec City, will see chilly temperatures alongside rain and snow showers between October 11 and October 17. If the forecast holds, much of the province could experience its first snowfall of the season before Halloween.
Nationally, the Almanac calls for a milder fall overall, with above-average temperatures across most of the country and above-average rainfall nearly everywhere except British Columbia. But Quebec's picture divides along an east-west line — the east is expected to run warmer than normal while the west trends cooler. Both September and October are forecast to be wetter than average across the region.
For context, southern Ontario is tracking a similar pattern, with rain and snow expected between October 11 and 17 in the east (including Ottawa) and October 15 to 21 further west. The southern Prairies are expecting a colder stretch with rain and snow from October 8 to 20.
The Almanac's long-range forecasts combine solar activity, historical climate patterns, and meteorological data against a 30-year statistical average (1991–2020). Because long-range forecasts are made months ahead, specific dates can still shift, but the projection suggests getting winter coats ready sooner rather than later.
The facts
When could southern Quebec see its first snow?
The Old Farmer's Almanac projects southern Quebec, including Montreal and Quebec City, will see rain and snow showers between October 11 and October 17, 2026, potentially bringing the first snowfall of the season before Halloween.
What's the national fall forecast across Canada?
The Old Farmer's Almanac calls for a milder fall overall nationally, with above-average temperatures across most of the country and above-average rainfall nearly everywhere except British Columbia.
How does the forecast differ between eastern and western Quebec?
Eastern Quebec is expected to run warmer than normal while western Quebec trends cooler. Both September and October are forecast to be wetter than average across the region.
When is snow expected in southern Ontario?
Southern Ontario is tracking rain and snow between October 11 and October 17 in the east (including Ottawa) and October 15 to October 21 further west.
