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Neil Saravanamuttoo dismisses polling data, points to early voting strength ahead of October 26 mayoral race

The mayoral candidate is downplaying poll numbers showing him in a weaker position, citing strong early-voting turnout and citing voter confusion in other races.

· 3 min read · HOC Ottawa Desk
Neil Saravanamuttoo dismisses polling data, points to early voting strength ahead of October 26 mayoral race
File photo: Edmond Dantès / Pexels
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Neil Saravanamuttoo is rejecting the reliability of public polling in the final week before Ottawa's mayoral election on October 26, pointing instead to early voting strength and arguing he remains the strongest challenger to frontrunner Mark Sutcliffe.

Sutcliffe's internal polling from Abacus Data showed Saravanamuttoo narrowly overtaking Councillor Jeff Leiper for second place among likely voters. A separate poll from Mainstreet Research released over the weekend by Leiper's campaign showed a tighter race between Sutcliffe and Leiper, with Saravanamuttoo in fourth. Both polls found large numbers of voters remain undecided.

"Polling at the municipal level is highly unreliable," Saravanamuttoo said at a campaign event in Crystal Beach on Tuesday, one of the neighbourhoods hardest hit by July 1 flooding. He pointed to Surrey, B.C.'s municipal election, where incumbent Brenda Locke was polling to win a second term but was soundly defeated by former mayor Doug McCallum.

"We've got strong indications that our supporters have been showing up in force to bank their votes early," Saravanamuttoo said, adding he was very confident about the race's outcome.

Saravanamuttoo, an economist, unveiled environmental policies at the Crystal Beach event that he said would offer protection and savings for taxpayers. "The Canada Day floodings were a wake-up call for our city," he said. "Weather events that we brushed off as once in a century are now happening every few" [text cut off in source].

Saravanamuttoo argued his city-wide geographic strength distinguishes him from competitors. "People that are considering voting strategically, you need to vote for me for the simple reason that I can win across the entire city," he said. "Other candidates cannot. We've got one candidate concentrated in the downtown area. We've got another that seems to be more concentrated in some rural areas. But I've got support across the entire city in the urban centres, in the suburban centres and in the rural areas. And so I am the challenger for Mr. Sutcliffe and I am the one that can defeat him."

What we asked

What specific early voting data supports Saravanamuttoo's confidence, and has that data been verified independently?

How does the range of results across different polls — Abacus placing Saravanamuttoo second, Mainstreet placing him fourth — affect his campaign's internal strategy?

We'll update this story as answers emerge.

The facts

What did Saravanamuttoo cite as evidence of his campaign strength?

Strong early voting turnout among his supporters, whom he said were banking their votes in force ahead of election day.

According to Mainstreet Research polling, how many candidates were ahead of Saravanamuttoo?

Two candidates—Mark Sutcliffe and Jeff Leiper—were ahead of Saravanamuttoo in fourth place according to that poll.