Ottawa mayoral race tightens sharply as Sutcliffe's June lead collapses from 29 points to 7

A new poll from Quorus Consulting Group shows Ottawa's mayoral race has tightened dramatically heading into the October 26 election.

Among all voters surveyed October 8 to 15, incumbent Mayor Mark Sutcliffe holds 28% support, with challenger Jeff Leiper at 24%. Neil Saravanamuttoo sits at 7%, Alex Lawson at 4%, and 10 other candidates combined at 4%. One-third of voters (33%) remain undecided, would not vote, or prefer not to say. The poll surveyed 807 Ottawa residents.

Among decided voters only, Sutcliffe leads Leiper 42% to 35%—a 7-point margin. Saravanamuttoo draws 10% and Lawson 7% among those who have made up their minds.

The shift is striking when compared to June. A Quorus poll then showed Sutcliffe at 54% and Leiper at 25%—a 29-point lead. Quorus described Sutcliffe's current 7-point advantage as "comfortable enough to suggest victory, but represents a remarkable reduction in a 29 per cent lead we measured in June."

The polling firm cautions that turnout could reshape the result. Sutcliffe's strength lies with voters aged 55 and older and homeowners. Leiper's support concentrates among voters under 55 and renters—both historically low-turnout segments. Among respondents who said they had already voted or definitely would vote, Leiper held a technical lead. Quorus notes that turnout for municipal elections "is rarely (if ever) as high as the 69 per cent this implies." In 2022, Ottawa's mayoral election drew 43.8% turnout; in 2018, 42.5%; and in 2014, approximately 40%.

Early voting has picked up: 86,592 advance votes were cast across five advance-voting days in 2026, compared to 79,491 across six days in 2022. That represents an 8.9% increase in early-voter turnout.