Sutcliffe leads mayoral race at 35% but nearly 20% remain undecided ahead of Monday vote
A poll commissioned by rival Alex Lawson's campaign shows support fragmented five days before Ottawa's election, with one-fifth of voters still uncommitted.
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Mark Sutcliffe holds a 35 per cent lead in Ottawa's mayoral race, but a poll released Sunday shows the race remains unsettled with almost 20 per cent of voters still undecided heading into Monday's vote.
Mainstreet Research surveyed 638 residents October 14-16 for Alex Lawson's campaign. Sutcliffe's 35 per cent support outpaced Lawson at 11 per cent, Jeff Leiper at 25 per cent, and Neil Saravanamuttoo at 8 per cent. The poll carries a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points at 95 per cent confidence.
Quito Maggi, Mainstreet's CEO, noted the undecided share as the most consequential figure. Among those voters, 61.5 per cent said they "definitely will not vote for" Sutcliffe — suggesting potential room for consolidation around rival candidates. Maggi pointed to Surrey's October 17 municipal election as a cautionary case: a Canada Pulse Insights poll showed Brenda Locke at 33 per cent and Doug McCallum at 16 per cent among decided voters, yet McCallum won with 31.9 per cent to Locke's 23.1 per cent. "Undecided voters, differences in turnout and strategic consolidation can produce an outcome that headline polling numbers do not anticipate," Maggi said.
The Mainstreet poll does not report support levels separately among decided voters — a methodology Maggi defended on the grounds that the gap between Sutcliffe and other candidates is smaller than the undecided rate itself, making the undecided share the truer measure of the race's shape.
What is the actual breakdown of support among voters who have already decided?
How have voting intentions shifted since Sutcliffe's 52 per cent showing in the earlier October poll?
We'll update this story as answers emerge.
The facts
Who leads Ottawa's mayoral race and by how much?
Mark Sutcliffe leads with 35 per cent support, ahead of Jeff Leiper at 25 per cent, Alex Lawson at 11 per cent, and Neil Saravanamuttoo at 8 per cent.
When was the mayoral poll conducted?
Mainstreet Research surveyed 638 residents from October 14-16, 2026 for Alex Lawson's campaign.
What percentage of Ottawa voters remain undecided?
Nearly 20 per cent of voters are still undecided ahead of the election on Monday, October 19, 2026.
