Sutcliffe holds commanding 36-point lead in mayoral race, internal poll shows

Mark Sutcliffe is running away with the mayoral race. The incumbent mayor's campaign commissioned a poll from Abacus Data showing him at 52 per cent support among decided voters, a 36-point lead over his closest challenger.

The poll, conducted online September 25–30, surveyed 1,000 respondents and presented four candidates: Sutcliffe, long-serving city councillor Jeff Leiper, economist Neil Saravanamuttoo, and homebuilder Alex Lawson. Among the 755 respondents who had decided on a candidate, Sutcliffe held 52 per cent, Leiper 16 per cent, Saravanamuttoo 14 per cent, Lawson 14 per cent, and other candidates 4 per cent.

When narrowed to 534 likely voters — those "absolutely certain to vote" — Sutcliffe's lead remained substantial at 50 per cent, with Saravanamuttoo at 17 per cent, Leiper at 16 per cent, and Lawson at 13 per cent. Among all 1,000 eligible voters surveyed, Sutcliffe polled at 39 per cent, with a 27-point lead over his nearest challenger.

Abacus chief pollster David Coletto noted the survey carries a limitation: because respondents were drawn from online research panels rather than a random probability sample, a traditional margin of error cannot be calculated. For the 755 decided voters, a comparable margin of error is plus or minus 3.6 points; for the 534 likely voters, it is plus or minus 4.2 points.

A separate poll from Nanos Research conducted October 4–8 for CTV News Ottawa showed similar but slightly tighter results, with Sutcliffe at 49 per cent, Leiper at 31 per cent, Saravanamuttoo at 12 per cent, and Lawson at 7 per cent among decided voters.

The race has tightened slightly since summer. A July poll showed Sutcliffe at 36 per cent, Lawson 26 per cent, Leiper 25 per cent, and Saravanamuttoo 11 per cent — a very different picture from today's commanding advantage.

Early voting begins October 16, with the municipal election set for October 26. A total of 14 candidates are running for mayor.