Alberta separatism support slips to 23% as referendum nears October 19 vote

Support for Alberta separating from Canada has fallen to 23%, with 72% of Albertans saying they would vote to remain in Canada, according to a new poll released this week.

The Janet Brown Opinion Research poll, conducted September 8 to 21 among 1,200 Albertans, marks a decline from April when 27% backed separation and 67% opposed it. The referendum is set for October 19.

"It's part of this overall trend that we're seeing," pollster Janet Brown said. "People are feeling more comfortable with Alberta's role in Canada, more comfortable with Ottawa, more comfortable with the prime minister. And all of those things seem to have caused a slight dip in the proportion of Albertans ready to vote to separate."

Support to remain in Canada is higher in major cities—74% in Calgary, Edmonton and other urban centres—compared to 69% in small towns and rural areas. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

Lori Thorlakson, a political science professor at the University of Alberta, said the shift reflects voters wrestling with consequences. "This most recent shift, I think, really reflects that people are focusing more on what it would actually mean if we were to leave Canada."

Both the pro-separation and pro-Canada campaigns are running advertising, holding rallies, and distributing lawn signs across cities and rural areas ahead of the vote.