Majority of Albertans would vote to stay in Canada, new poll shows

A clear majority of Albertans would vote to keep the province in Canada, according to new polling from the Angus Reid Institute released Friday.

Sixty-one per cent believe Alberta should remain a province of Canada, compared to 33 per cent who would vote to start the legal process toward a future binding separation referendum. The gap widens when Albertans are asked a simplified question: asked how they would vote if the choice were simply to leave Canada or stay, 65 per cent chose stay and only 30 per cent chose leave.

The discrepancy appears to reflect mixed motivations among those supporting separation. Some view the October 19 referendum as a meaningful political statement to Ottawa rather than a genuine first step toward independence.

Demographics show clear divides. Men older than 34 are more likely than others to support the separation path. Three-quarters of Albertans under 35 want the province to remain in Canada, making young adults the demographic group most opposed to separation. Nearly all 2023 NDP voters (92 per cent) want to stop the separation effort in its tracks.

Among 2023 UCP supporters—Premier Danielle Smith's party—a higher proportion favour advancing to a binding referendum, though the province remains opposed at the majority level. Smith faces a delicate political balance: her party base leans toward separation while most Albertans do not.

The polling was conducted August 10-13, 2026, among 1,017 Albertans. Support for staying in Canada has remained consistent throughout 2026, with two-thirds backing that position since May.