Seventy percent of Albertans say province should remain in Canada before October 19 referendum

Seven out of ten Albertans say their province should remain part of Canada, according to a Leger poll released October 9, as the province prepares for a referendum on October 19 that has intensified separatism as a political issue.

Support for remaining in Canada stands at 70%, up from 65% in August. Twenty-two percent would support the Alberta government beginning a legal process toward a binding separation referendum, while 7% remain undecided. Voter engagement is high: 77% rate their likelihood of voting at 8 to 10 out of 10, up from 68% in August.

The referendum has shifted political priorities. Provincial nationalism and separatism now ranks as a top concern for 16% of Albertans, tied with healthcare. In April, only 9% named it as the most important issue. It now ranks ahead of inflation and rising interest rates (14%), the economy (10%) and housing affordability (9%).

The divide breaks sharply along party lines. Ninety-eight percent of NDP voters favour remaining in Canada, while 43% of United Conservative Party voters support staying. Forty-eight percent of UCP voters support beginning the legal process toward a separation referendum. Among NDP voters, 93% rate their likelihood of voting at 8 to 10 out of 10; 78% of UCP voters express the same confidence.

On the outcomes voters expect, 50% anticipate negative economic consequences from the referendum and separation discussions, while 21% expect positive economic impact. Thirty percent report tensions with family, friends, coworkers or neighbours over separation discussions. Sixty-six percent of UCP voters believe Alberta is heading in the right direction, while 87% of NDP voters say the province is on the wrong track.