Budget watchdog warns Alto rail project costs could exceed Ottawa's $90B estimate
The Parliamentary Budget Officer projects $75B to $113B for the Toronto-Quebec City high-speed rail corridor, compared to Ottawa's $60B to $90B range.
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The Parliamentary Budget Officer released a report Thursday warning that construction costs for the proposed Alto high-speed rail corridor between Toronto and Quebec City could significantly exceed the federal government's estimates.
Ottawa has projected costs between $60 billion and $90 billion. The PBO calculated a range of $75 billion to $113 billion. The discrepancy centers on engineering challenges including cutting through the Canadian Shield.
The budget watchdog reviewed high-speed rail projects worldwide and found that projects in the United Kingdom and United States have generally been more expensive than those in continental Europe and have often experienced substantial budget overruns. "Given the institutional similarities between the U.K., U.S. and Canada, an HSR project in Canada may be at risk of similar cost escalation pressures," the PBO noted in its report. "Construction costs for certain infrastructure projects in Canada have been observed to rise at a faster rate than in comparator countries."
The PBO's projections exclude a potential Kingston stop, which would add further cost and complexity.
The proposal has drawn criticism from multiple directions. The Federal Conservative party called it a costly "boondoggle." Bloc Québécois members have expressed concern that the project is being rushed through without proper consideration. Some rural communities opposed to the construction argue it would be disruptive with little direct benefit to their areas.
No statement from the federal government responding to the PBO report has been released.
Has the federal government established a timeline for responding to the PBO's cost analysis?
Does the government plan to revise its budget estimate in response to the watchdog's report?
We'll update this story as answers emerge.
By the numbers
What's the difference between Ottawa's and the PBO's cost estimates for Alto?
Ottawa projects $60 billion to $90 billion for the Toronto-Quebec City high-speed rail corridor, while the Parliamentary Budget Officer calculated $75 billion to $113 billion.
What's the main reason for the cost discrepancy identified by the PBO?
The PBO cited engineering challenges including cutting through the Canadian Shield as the primary driver of higher projected costs for the Alto project.
