B.C. Conservatives promise $2.6B in new revenue while projecting narrower deficits than NDP
Six days before voters decide, B.C. Conservative platform projects economic growth substantially higher than forecasters predict, betting on optimism to shrink the budget shortfall.
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The B.C. Conservative platform, released six days before Saturday's election, projects deficits of $13.7 billion this fiscal year, $13.5 billion next year, and $12.3 billion in 2028-29.
The NDP's platform projects deficits of $13.8 billion, $12.7 billion, and $12 billion in the same years. With what Conservatives call accounting corrections, they claim their deficit would be $101 million smaller than the NDP's next year and $762 million smaller the year after.
The Conservative platform pledges tax cuts and new spending while claiming the deficit will shrink.
Conservative Leader Lorne Doerkson said the platform assumes "about one per cent more optimism in the province than the NDP, and frankly I think it's completely achievable."
Those growth projections are substantially higher than recent forecasts by the Bank of Canada and International Monetary Fund at the national level.
The Conservatives are reallocating $7 billion over four years from a contingency fund, which represents 60% of their total purported spending cuts. They reject the NDP's forecast of $1.8 billion in additional provincial revenues from newly approved resource projects including LNG Canada expansion, and predict high-income earners will flee if the NDP imposes a new tax bracket for people earning over $1 million per year.
Nicolas Schmitt, professor emeritus at Simon Fraser University's School of Economics, questioned the projections' credibility. "It's difficult to put credence into these, especially given the level of uncertainty in which we are currently living given the relationship between the U.S. and Canada," Schmitt said. "We don't know how things will unfold in the next six months, let alone in three years."
As HighOnCity reported in September, the B.C. government projected a deficit shortfall of $13.8 billion in 2026-27.
If economic growth falls short of the Conservatives' 2.5% projection, where would spending cuts fall?
What specific tax increases or spending reductions does each party plan if their revenue projections miss?
We'll update this story as answers emerge.
By the numbers
What deficits does the B.C. Conservative platform project?
The B.C. Conservative platform projects deficits of $13.7 billion in the current fiscal year, $13.5 billion in the next year, and $12.3 billion in 2028-29.
How much new revenue do the Conservatives claim through accounting adjustments?
The B.C. Conservatives claim their deficit would be $101 million smaller than the NDP's next year and $762 million smaller in 2028-29 through what they call accounting corrections.
