Canada more than 20 years behind reaching its 2030 climate emissions target

Canada is more than 20 years behind its 2030 climate target if current emissions trends and policies remain unchanged, according to analysis released Friday by the Canadian Climate Institute and Navius Research.

Canada's 2030 goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels. Under current conditions, Canada would not be on track to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

Rick Smith, president of the Canadian Climate Institute, said the country has already demonstrated it can cut emissions while growing the economy. "We need to start now," Smith said. "What the country has already shown is that we can cut emissions while growing the economy. But, you know, this isn't going to happen magically."

Smith noted that Canada is the 11th biggest greenhouse gas polluter in the world and warned that inaction could lead to more extreme weather. The institute's report suggests Canada could become 5°C hotter by 2100 under current conditions, leading to more extreme rainfall, droughts, and unbearably hot days.

Federal climate policy has shifted in recent months. The government has weakened industrial carbon pricing and removed mandatory zero-emission vehicle sales targets for automakers. Smith suggested that failing to reach climate goals could set Canada back economically and politically, and make it harder to keep pace with countries moving toward cleaner economies.