Canada faces CUSMA review deadline Wednesday amid U.S. renegotiation push
July 1 marks the six-year review of the trade deal shielding 90% of Canadian exports from U.S. tariffs.
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Canadian officials will meet with counterparts from the U.S. and Mexico on Wednesday for a landmark review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, the trade deal that shields nearly 90 per cent of Canadian exports from U.S. tariffs.
July 1 is the deadline set in CUSMA's text for each country to declare whether it wants to extend the agreement beyond its 2036 expiry. The review offers two options: a 16-year extension keeping the deal until 2042, or renegotiation with no clear endpoint unless all three sides reach a deal.
Canada and Mexico have publicly stated they want CUSMA extended, though both are willing to discuss amendments. The U.S. has not released an official statement, but the Trump administration has made clear it wants to renegotiate many terms and is unlikely to agree to an extension first — that would surrender negotiating leverage.
A Canadian source with knowledge of the file said that Canada does not expect the U.S. to opt for extending CUSMA on Wednesday. Bilateral talks with the U.S. are expected to continue.
Importantly, CUSMA does not expire on July 1 even if the U.S. formally rejects the extension. The agreement remains in place until 2036 unless a country provides six months' official notice of withdrawal. The U.S. cannot terminate CUSMA on Wednesday despite President Trump's recent complaints about the deal, which he signed in his first term.
July 1 is "a checkpoint ... not a cliff," Canada's chief negotiator Janice Charette said in April. Charette and Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc will participate in Wednesday's virtual meeting.
