CUSMA trade review arrives Wednesday—a checkpoint, not a deadline

A critical moment in Canada's trade relationship with the United States arrives Wednesday, July 1, when the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement officially comes up for review after an 18-month trade war sparked by U.S. tariffs.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford is heading to Washington for his third trip in less than a month to meet with U.S. lawmakers. Businesses and labour groups say they're watching with a mix of anxiety and hope.

Canadian negotiators have been clear that the July 1 date is not a hard deadline. The trade agreement requires mandatory review this year, but the text says the three countries have up to 10 years to approve a renewal or signal their intention to exit. Canada and Mexico have indicated they'd like to continue the deal for another 16 years, though the U.S. position has appeared to lean toward annual review.

Unifior national president Lana Payne urged calm. "My advice has been, stay calm, hold the line, don't lose your nerve," she said, adding that rising energy prices and falling consumer confidence in the U.S. economy may be shifting the tone of negotiations. "I think the cake is baking a bit in the United States right now."

The auto sector stands to be the biggest battleground. Payne said the industry cannot be surrendered in talks with the U.S. and that workers are already paying the price for economic uncertainty.

Ontario Chamber of Commerce CEO Daniel Tisch said his group is reassuring members that Wednesday is not a cliff. "We look at next week with some anxiety, but also hope, because the deal will continue. This is a checkpoint, not a cliff," he said.

The impact of the trade war—specifically tariffs on auto, steel, aluminum, and forestry—has been pronounced. The Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters reported a predictable drop in exports to the U.S. over the past 18 months, with many businesses halting capital investment in their operations.