Canada's population revised upward by 300,000 after statistics agency adjusts temporary-resident estimates

Canada's population is approximately 300,000 higher than earlier estimates, reversing indications the country's population was shrinking, according to analysis by Central 1, a Vancouver-based credit union.

The revision stems from adjusted estimates of temporary residents — international students and temporary workers — dating back to July 2021. Statistics Canada incorporated new Canada Border Services Agency data on departures before permits expired and adjusted for people with extension applications still being processed. Earlier estimates had relied solely on permit expiry dates, which overstated departures.

Canada's population as of July 2026 stands at nearly 41.8 million. The country gained over 80,300 residents in the second quarter of 2026, representing 0.2 per cent growth. Year-over-year, Canada added approximately 189,400 people, a 0.5 per cent growth rate.

The revision is significant because earlier estimates had shown two consecutive quarters of year-over-year population decline. April 2026 figures initially indicated a population drop of 0.5 per cent year-over-year; revised figures now show a 0.5 per cent increase. The adjustment period reaches back five years, affecting how Canada's demographic trajectory is understood.

British Columbia, the weakest-performing province, added 8,053 residents year-over-year — a 0.1 per cent growth rate. The province gained 6,914 residents in Q2 2026 but had lost 2,649 in Q1. Permanent immigration four quarters ending June 2026 reached approximately 368,200 people, though Q2 2026 permanent immigration was 4.2 per cent lower than the previous year. Work permit numbers increased in Q2 while study permit numbers fell.