Six MPs Resigning This Summer Will Trigger Byelection Scramble

The countdown is on for half a dozen byelections as MPs who signalled they won't return to Ottawa this fall begin vacating their seats. Two Liberal MPs officially resigned Friday — Jonathan Wilkinson, heading to Brussels as Canada's ambassador to the European Union, and Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay, formerly of the Bloc Québécois, who plans to run provincially with the Parti Québécois this fall.

Once an MP officially resigns, the Speaker notifies the chief electoral officer, and Prime Minister Mark Carney has 11 to 180 days to call a byelection. Campaigns last at least 36 days and can stretch to 50 days. The government could theoretically hold summer votes but has historically scheduled multiple byelections at once, suggesting Carney may wait until all six MPs have officially left. Former Liberal cabinet ministers Steven Guilbeault and Nathaniel Erskine-Smith are expected to step down. Independent MP Alexandre Boulerice, running provincially in Quebec, said he'll wait for the provincial election call. Conservative MP Cathay Wagantall indicated she'll resign August 31.

With two vacancies already notified, Carney has until December 19 to call those byelections. The timing could align with the Quebec provincial election on October 5, avoiding overlapping campaigns since three vacancies are in that province.

The Liberals will maintain a thin majority when the House resumes in late September even after losing three MPs. When Parliament adjourned last week, Liberals held 173 seats (not counting Speaker Francis Scarpaleggia) and the combined opposition had 169. With Wilkinson and Savard-Tremblay gone, Liberals drop to 172 seats and opposition to 168. After two additional MPs leave this summer, Liberals will hold 170 seats when the House returns — below the 170-seat majority threshold, but the government only needs to win one of six byelections to restore control.