Young Albertans cool on separation while middle-aged voters lead the push for independence

The demographic driving Alberta's separation movement skews notably older than the youth leading Quebec's independence push, new polling suggests.

Alberta's separatist support peaks at 35% among 45- to 54-year-olds, according to data from Janet Brown Opinion Research surveyed for CBC News earlier this year. By contrast, 18- to 24-year-olds show the highest disapproval of separatism at 81%, with just 14% in favour. Recent polls from Angus Reid and Leger both suggest support for Alberta separation among 18- to 34-year-olds to be in the mid-teens.

John Santos, data scientist at Janet Brown Opinion Research, noted that the 18-24 grouping had a lower number of respondents and therefore a higher margin of error. But he said the pattern across multiple polling firms is consistent. "We find that peak separatism is actually in the middle-aged categories," he said.

Santos cautioned that many younger Albertans remain uncommitted on the issue. "Many of those younger people are just starting to engage with civic and political ideas and so I think the larger story here is that many of them are not committed one way or another," he said. "In some ways, they could be up for grabs."

The generational split stands in stark contrast to Quebec, where young people have become some of the most vocal proponents of independence. A pro-independence group threw a large event coinciding with Fête nationale earlier this summer, drawing some 12,000 people, many of them Gen Z.

Camille Goyette-Gingras, president of OUI Québec, a grassroots pro-independence organization, is 32 and describes herself as one of the older staff members. She attributes the youth appeal to broader anxieties about the future. "In general, I think it's true for young people around the world, but it's really true for young people in Quebec, there's like a feeling that there's a loss of control over what could happen in their future," she said. Concerns include the environment and, specifically in Quebec, loss of culture or language.

Goyette-Gingras said parental influence has played little role. "I think it's mostly young people among themselves that took back the independence idea like it never existed before," she said. "Sometimes we see a moment a bit funny with their parents, because you have the kid that is explaining to their parents what is the Quebec independence movement, but sometimes [the parent] themselves have been [an] activist a few years back."

OUI Québec organizer Alex Valiquette highlighted frustration about the future and post-pandemic isolation as factors drawing his generation to the movement, along with approaching it with fresh eyes without the historical weight their parents carried. "What's different is that we don't have this humiliation that our parents felt when they lost it," he said.