Billy Bishop Expansion Could Add $8.5B Annually, Province Claims
Ontario says jets at Toronto's island airport would pump billions into Canada's economy by 2050, but the math behind the figure remains murky.
Doug Ford's government is doubling down on plans to expand Billy Bishop Airport for jet service, citing a staggering economic projection: $8.5 billion annually by 2050.
But weeks after first touting that number, neither the province nor the Toronto Port Authority has released the underlying analysis. The port authority confirmed to CBC News that its economic impact study is still underway and will continue into the fall. When asked if Ontario had conducted its own analysis, the Transportation Minister's office didn't directly answer — instead emphasizing that "the economic benefit is too important to not move forward."
The silence has raised red flags among experts. Sandford Borins, a retired professor of public management at the University of Toronto who has studied airport planning, says he's unconvinced the expansion would deliver the promised windfall. Much of the new traffic, he argues, would simply shift from Toronto Pearson rather than generate fresh economic activity. "Whether travellers pass through Pearson or Billy Bishop, it would contribute the same billions of dollars to the economy," he said.
Frédéric Dimanche, a professor of hospitality and tourism management at Toronto Metropolitan University, adds that the airport's convenience for business travelers could actually work against the city — day-trippers who don't stay overnight generate far less spending than traditional tourists.
The expansion plan, introduced through Bill 5, would allow the province to override certain municipal planning and environmental regulations, expropriate land from Toronto, and take over the city's seat in the tripartite agreement governing the airport. Toronto Pearson says it's not at capacity — 47.3 million passengers passed through last year, still below the pre-pandemic peak of 50.5 million. The airport's current expansion project is designed to handle 65 million passengers annually.
Meanwhile, the Billy Bishop expansion faces mounting skepticism from both academics and the public. The question isn't just whether the economic case holds up — it's whether anyone's bothering to check.