Carney tells U.S. reporters he studied risk of American military invasion of Canada
In an interview with The New York Times, Canada's PM said preparing for 'extreme tail risk' scenarios is part of responsible risk management.
The day's top stories, food & events — every morning at 7. Unsubscribe anytime.
Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney disclosed this week that he has studied and prepared for the "extreme tail risk" of a U.S. military invasion, framing such contingency planning as responsible governance amid escalating trade tensions.
In an interview with reporters at The New York Times headquarters in New York City, Carney said: "I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk. That's just risk management. That's not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to." He did not elaborate on what specific scenarios or preparations his analysis entailed, responding only after being pressed on the matter.
The conversation was framed primarily around Carney's efforts to build business relationships with other countries during the Canada-U.S. trade war, which intensified after negotiations broke down in mid-August. Trump imposed duties on Canadian goods the day talks collapsed. Canada implemented retaliatory tariffs in early September. Trump has also signed orders to identify and remove Canadian-origin products from U.S. government procurement.
Carney said he and Trump speak frequently and described their dynamic as constructive. "From my perspective, we have a good relationship in the sense of, we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues. He's direct. I'm direct in terms of where positions are. It's much more efficient that way," he told the Times.
On the possibility of resolving trade tensions, Carney said: "Is there a mutually beneficial trade deal between Canada and the US? Absolutely. Absolutely there is one."
Other coverage noted that Trump ruled out military force to annex Canada in January 2025 but said he would consider "economic force." Carney also discussed Canada's plans to reduce reliance on Elon Musk's Starlink satellite internet and Canada's ongoing review of whether to procure American F-35 fighter jets—a review launched more than a year ago in response to the trade war.
What specific military scenarios or strategic vulnerabilities did Carney's analysis identify?
What concrete preparations or contingency measures has his government undertaken?
We'll update this story as answers emerge.
The facts
What did Canada's PM say about preparing for a U.S. military invasion?
Mark Carney told The New York Times that studying the 'extreme tail risk' of American military invasion is part of responsible risk management, though he emphasized it is not a base case scenario.
When did trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. break down?
Negotiations broke down in mid-August, after which Trump imposed duties on Canadian goods.
What retaliatory measures did Canada take in response to U.S. tariffs?
Canada implemented retaliatory tariffs in early September following Trump's imposition of duties on Canadian goods.
