Ontario's December could feel like fall as record El Niño peaks this winter
The Weather Network forecasts one of Canada's mildest winters in years. A record-breaking El Niño is expected to peak around the start of the season.
The day's top stories, food & events — every morning at 7. Unsubscribe anytime.
Ontario could experience one of its mildest winters in years, with December expected to feel like extended fall thanks to a record-breaking El Niño set to peak as the season begins.
The Weather Network issued its winter forecast this week, predicting well-above-normal temperatures for Ontario and the GTA through early season. The mild start is the highest-confidence part of the forecast, though the network cautions that winter can still make sharp appearances between late January and into February. Any cold snaps are expected to be relatively short-lived.
The forecast hinges on El Niño—a natural climate phenomenon featuring unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The World Meteorological Organization reported Thursday that sea surface temperatures in that region are expected to reach record levels between October and December 2026, with El Niño strengthening ahead of its forecast peak in December.
Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General, said in a statement: "El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly. WMO forecasts indicate a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950."
El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years, lasts between nine and 12 months, and can significantly alter global atmospheric circulation despite developing thousands of kilometres away from Canada. If El Niño fades quickly, winter could attempt a comeback later in the season. If it persists, the result could be overwhelmingly mild—potentially historic.
The facts
When is El Niño expected to peak?
El Niño is forecast to peak in December 2026.
What does the Weather Network predict for Ontario's winter?
The Weather Network forecasts well-above-normal temperatures for Ontario and the GTA through early season, with December expected to feel like extended fall.
How likely is El Niño to persist through February 2027?
The World Meteorological Organization forecasts a near-100 per cent likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027.
When might cold snaps occur this winter?
Any cold snaps are expected between late January and into February, though they are expected to be relatively short-lived.
