A potential 'super El Niño' could bring Toronto a warmer, drier winter than expected
Environment Canada forecasts record-breaking sea surface temperatures that could mean less snow and more rain this winter across southern Ontario.
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Toronto could see a significantly warmer and drier winter than usual if a potentially record-breaking El Niño develops as forecast.
Environment and Climate Change Canada is predicting a high probability of a very strong El Niño developing this fall and continuing into spring 2027. What makes this event unusual: sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific are forecast to reach more than 3 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. "We never had a three-degree El Niño," said Marko Markovic, a physical scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when unusually warm water accumulates in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It typically happens every three to five years. The strongest El Niño effects are generally felt in Western Canada during summer and fall, but central and eastern Canada — including Toronto — see more influence during winter and spring.
Historically, El Niño has been associated with warmer and drier conditions in the Toronto region. If this forecast holds, the city could see less snow during winter, with a shorter snow season that starts later and finishes earlier. More precipitation may fall as rain rather than snow. Warmer conditions can also lead to rain falling on existing snow, changing how winter unfolds.
Environment Canada's seasonal forecast already shows above-normal temperatures across southern Ontario expected for September, October and November. Markovic stressed there is no reason for widespread concern at this point. The agency's forecasts this far in advance focus on broader seasonal patterns rather than individual extreme weather events, which cannot be reliably predicted months ahead.
The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed El Niño is firmly established and expected to intensify into a very strong event.
The facts
How much warmer than normal could Pacific sea surface temperatures get?
Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific are forecast to reach more than 3 degrees Celsius above the long-term average, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada.
What winter weather changes could Toronto experience?
Toronto could see less snow, a shorter snow season that starts later and finishes earlier, and more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow. Warmer conditions may also bring rain falling on existing snow.
