Chow holds 49% support against Bradford's 40% in latest Toronto mayoral poll

Mayor Olivia Chow maintains a clear lead in Toronto's mayoral race, drawing 49% support among decided and leaning voters, compared with 40% for Councillor Brad Bradford, according to a new Liaison Strategies poll conducted June 28–30 among 1,000 Toronto residents. Another 10% said they would choose someone else.

Chow's support has barely moved since May, when she sat at 50%. Bradford, however, has climbed from 37% to 40%. Among all voters including the undecided, Bradford has risen from 28% to 32%, while the undecided share has dropped from 24% to 20%.

David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, said the race remains Chow's to lose but Bradford is making measurable gains. "This is still Olivia Chow's race. But the movement since May is toward Bradford. Chow is essentially flat, while Bradford is up."

Chow's job approval, though still positive at 51%, has softened from 54% in May—her lowest rating since September 2025. Disapproval sits at 43%. Torontonians are now evenly split on whether the city is headed in the right direction: 46% say right direction, 46% say wrong direction, compared with a 50–46 split in May.

Regionally, Chow dominates downtown with 69% support among decided voters. Bradford leads in Etobicoke (55% to 35%), while North York and Scarborough remain competitive.

The survey also gauged public sentiment on the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Sixty-one per cent of residents say the tournament has been good for the city, while 29% say it has been bad. Support for future international sporting events is stronger: 63% want Toronto to host more major competitions. Still, disruptions were felt—18% of residents report that World Cup crowds or road closures changed their commute or travel plans, and another 18% say they avoided downtown entirely.