Toronto mayoral race tightens as Brad Bradford gains ground on Olivia Chow

Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow remains in the lead in the race to October's municipal election, but rival Brad Bradford is gaining ground, according to a new poll released Tuesday, July 7.

The Liaison Strategies survey found Chow would receive 49% of decided voters' support if the election were held today, compared to 40% for Bradford, with another 10% supporting other candidates. Among all voters, Chow leads by 8 points — down slightly from her 22-point advantage in May.

David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, said the momentum clearly favours Bradford. "She leads by nine points among decided voters and eight points among all voters. But the movement since May is toward Bradford. Among decided voters, Chow is essentially flat, moving from 50 per cent to 49 per cent, while Bradford is up from 37 per cent to 40 per cent," Valentin said. "The question is whether he has enough time and runway to make the race genuinely tied."

Chow's job approval rating has also slipped, falling to 50% — its lowest level since September 2025, though it remains in positive territory. The share of undecided voters has declined from 24% in May to 20% today, suggesting voters are crystallizing their choices.

Bradford faces a name-recognition challenge: 29% of respondents view him favourably while 23% hold an unfavourable opinion. Another 13% remain unsure, and 35% said they are not familiar with him. "Nearly half the city either does not know Bradford or has not made up its mind about him," Valentin said. "There is an opportunity in that, but also a risk."

The survey also found strong local support for Toronto's World Cup hosting role, with 61% saying it has been good for the city and 63% backing more major international sporting events.