B.C. small business confidence plummets as oil shock hits hiring plans
May saw the steepest drop in business sentiment since April as energy prices surged and costs squeezed margins across retail, hospitality, and beyond.
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Small business confidence in B.C. collapsed in May, with the 12-month outlook index falling to 47.4—below the neutral threshold that signals weakness. That's a sharp drop from 56.5 in April, driven by the Iran conflict and oil price shock rippling through every sector.
Retail, hospitality, and health-and-education industries took the largest hits. It wasn't just energy-exposed businesses struggling; consumer-facing sectors weakened too as weak demand and high costs hit margins broadly. Fuel costs topped the list of pressures at 72%, followed by taxes and regulatory costs at 64%, insurance at 60%, and wages at 60%.
Hiring plans deteriorated fastest. In May, 14% of B.C. firms planned to increase full-time staff while 17% expected to cut positions, leaving net hiring intentions at negative three points—weaker than the national average.
Payroll growth stayed tepid. March data showed employment retrench by 0.2% month-over-month across the province, with goods-producing sectors and construction hit hardest. The forestry sector plunged 7.2% year-over-year, amplified by U.S. tariffs.
For Vancouver workers, this signals a summer of caution. Employers are holding back on hiring and investment as uncertainty lingers.