Vancouver condo prices expected to fall further in 2026

Vancouver's condo market will see further price declines in 2026 as the region enters its deepest correction in at least two decades, according to Toronto-Dominion Bank economists.

TD Economics is forecasting a roughly 15 percent peak-to-trough decline from the 2023 high by mid-2027, marking the deepest correction on record back to at least 2005. For 2026, prices should fall 7 to 8 percent between the fourth quarters of 2025 and 2026 before some stabilization occurs in 2027, according to economist Rishi Sondhi and analyst Paul Kim.

"Vancouver's condo market is in the midst of a notable correction, though one that appears less severe than in Toronto," the bank said. "Sales are down and prices are falling, reflecting softer demand and elevated supply."

Vancouver's downturn should remain milder than Toronto's, with prices expected to stay above pre-pandemic levels, unlike Toronto where prices are expected to fall well below pre-pandemic levels.

Reasons for muted condo demand include a subdued labour market, hiring pullbacks tied to the trade war, and upward pressure on borrowing rates. B.C. is historically the most sensitive province to rate increases due to its poor affordability backdrop. Buyers are waiting for better deals, and listings are at elevated levels.

However, Vancouver's condo stock is more heavily skewed toward end users seeking entry points, compared to Toronto where investors play a larger role. This means Vancouver has a less volatile demand base.

As affordability improves through 2026, demand should gradually return, though the recovery will be restrained by tepid population growth and muted labour market conditions. Sales are likely to remain well below 10-year averages through next year.