Half of Vancouver's service industries forecast to shed jobs this year

Metro Vancouver's job market will shrink by 0.1 percent this year despite projected modest economic growth, according to a report released Monday by Signal49 Research, formerly the Conference Board of Canada.

Half of the region's service industries—which employ about 85 percent of the workforce—are forecast to post job losses in 2026. The professional, scientific and technical services sector and the finance, insurance and real estate sector, which together account for 24 percent of the region's employment, are projected to shed 4,300 and 7,700 positions respectively.

Retail trade employment is expected to fall by 5,700 jobs, driven by the outflow of temporary international migrants. The report warns that retail employment will remain 1,300 jobs below 2025 levels even by 2030.

"Over the near term, global economic uncertainty will weigh on firms' hiring decisions while population declines constrain the supply of workers, dampening job prospects in key services industries," the report states. Vancouver's status as a gateway to Asian markets will provide some protection from U.S. trade disruptions, but ongoing housing affordability challenges and weak demographics will constrain growth, the report says. Real GDP is forecast to grow by 1.5 percent in 2026.

Some bright spots: tourism is expected to see strong hiring. The accommodation and food services industry is set to support employment growth of 7.4 percent, or 7,800 jobs, driven by Vancouver's hosting of 2026 FIFA World Cup matches and China's reinstatement of approved destination status for group travellers. Health care and social assistance will create 4,100 net new positions this year as an aging population drives demand.